● Distribution Markets · Built on Base

Predict what happens.
Draw exactly how.

Not yes or no — a full probability curve. The world's first distribution prediction market, where your belief has infinite resolution.

Try the demo →How it works
Live market · Bitcoin Dec 31 2026 · $2.4M volume
← outcome range →
$4.8M
24h Volume
Across all markets
12,441
Active traders
Right now
847
Open markets
Finance, sports, culture
∞
Outcome resolution
Full distribution, not binary
The core mechanic

You draw. The crowd draws. The market emerges.

✏️
Draw your belief
Drag a probability curve across the full outcome range. Set your peak, your confidence, your tails. Express exactly what you believe — not just a direction.
← outcome range →
👥
Crowd distributions
Every trader submits a full distribution. The AMM aggregates them in real time. The result is a richer signal than any binary market can produce.
← crowd of distributions →
⚡
Up to 5× leverage
High conviction? Amplify it. Sharper distributions mean higher potential payouts. Skill is rewarded proportionally to how precisely you called it.
← higher conviction = sharper curve = bigger payout →
Live markets

Crowd medians, right now.

BTC Dec 31
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NFL MVP yds
1,240
iPhone 18 Pro
$1,299
TS Tour cities
42 cities
BTC Dec 31
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NFL MVP yds
1,240
iPhone 18 Pro
$1,299
TS Tour cities
42 cities
BTC Dec 31
$127K
S&P 500
6,200
NFL MVP yds
1,240
iPhone 18 Pro
$1,299
TS Tour cities
42 cities
Always liquid

Automated market makers.
Trade instantly, always.

No counterparty needed. The AMM concentrates liquidity using a constant L2-norm function over the distribution space — always instant, always deep.

Shape the outcome.

Try the demo →
Built on Base · Logarithmic scoring · Non-custodial