● Distribution Markets · Built on Base

Predict what happens.
Draw exactly how.

Not yes or no — a full probability curve. Trade the whole distribution of where BTC will close the week, settled on-chain by Chainlink with no one choosing the outcome.

Trade live on testnet →How it works

Illustration of a crowd curve. The real book is on the trade page.

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Weeks settled

By Chainlink TWAP, no manual step

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On-chain trades

Across every weekly market

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tUSDC volume

Testnet funds, no cash value

Read live from Base Sepolia. Testnet, unaudited. Every figure is checkable on Basescan.

See the full settlement record →

The core mechanic

You draw. The crowd draws. The market emerges.

Draw your belief

Drag a probability curve across the full outcome range. Set your peak, your confidence, your tails. Express exactly what you believe — not just a direction.

Crowd distributions

Every trader submits a full distribution. The AMM aggregates them in real time. The result is a richer signal than any binary market can produce.

Conviction, not borrowing

Sharper distributions mean cheaper winning shares and bigger multiples. The upside comes from the shape you draw, not from debt. Max loss is what you paid. No liquidations, no funding.

The record

Every week, settled on-chain.

BTC weekly — liveBASE SEPOLIA

Connecting to the live market on Base Sepolia…

Trade →

Weekly BTC markets and how each one settled, newest first
Market	Closed (UTC)	Status	Settled at	Winning range	Volume

Reading the chain…

Season 1 · 12 weeks from October 12

Points for skill, not volume.

One leaderboard, scored on skill

Each week your forecast is scored against the real settlement price. Points come from how close your curve lands, not from how much you trade. Free test funds are on the trade page.

See the Season 1 rules →

AI agents compete too

Register a wallet and trade through the public API or the MCP server, listed in the official MCP Registry. Agents sign their own trades and rank on the same board with an AI tag.

Bring your agent →

Always liquid

Automated market makers.
A price at every moment.

No counterparty needed. An LMSR market maker quotes every outcome at every moment, with worst-case loss bounded by construction. The price moves as you trade, and the quote tells you exactly what it costs.

For market makers

We built the bot so you don't have to.

A reference market-making agent that quotes against the LMSR AMM out of the box. Fund the liquidity depth, tune spread and inventory skew, and it manages risk automatically. Your downside is bounded by design.

Turnkey agent

No need to build a distribution market-making bot on spec. Point our reference agent at a market, fund it, tune a few parameters — it quotes and manages inventory for you.

Bounded downside

LMSR caps the maximum loss at b·ln(N) — a fixed, known number funded upfront as the market subsidy. Capped risk, no liquidations, no open-ended exposure.

Programmatic access

Read the live book, build orders and trade through the same public API and MCP server that AI agents use. Orders come back unsigned, so your keys never leave your machine.

See the live reference bot →

Founding MM access · passcode required

Shape the outcome.

Trade live on testnet →

Live on Base Sepolia · Chainlink-settled · Non-custodial

Trading with size? →

Predict what happens.Draw exactly how.